il 30 dicembre u.s. sul nyt è comparso quest'articolo , a sua volta articolato in dieci interventi, in cui ci si chiedeva " Even though prognostications turn out to be wrong as often as they are right, why do they have such enduring appeal? What Have They purpose served, from ancient times to Our information age? ".
this answer:
Ourselves ... to give the feeling of control over Our do ... to help you decide Between alternative courses of action, or Just Because You Have to Know.among those present was also Professor Shiller (every good trader should know and fear because it often determines its price list sudden movements in markets) who writes:
On Economic predictions, Statisticians and econometricians have some tools can help forecast Conditions That, But They Are rough. With "time series analysis," Which uses Collected data over time, one can see patterns, for example, of growth trends interrupted by recessions and recoveries. But that method can't handle any revolutions, breakthroughs or fundamental change in the way data are generated. The failure to predict the current financial crisis could be considered one of these cases. Statisticians and econome-tricians can get the direction of the trend right but be off by a mile as to the level . One of the 1931 forecasters for the New York Times predicted that the U.S. population would be 160 million in 2011. We are almost twice that number. The error in the growth rate is less than 1 percent a year, but 1 percent accumulates into a big difference in level over 80 years...più fortunate sembrano le "predictions" nella c.d. information technologies :
This observation goes well beyond Moore’s Law ... What’s predictable is that these measures grow exponentially, not linearly, though our intuition about the future is linear, which is hard-wired in our brains. This makes a remarkable difference. Thirty steps linearly gets you to 30, whereas 30 steps exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16. . .) gets you to a billion. This “law of accelerating returns,” as I call it, tells us that any area of information technology will grow enormously in power while becoming ever smaller in size. This law has continued for the three decades since I first noticed it, and goes back decades before that...Over the past two decades, I’ve made hundreds of predictions based on the law of accelerating returns. Of 147 predictions for 2009 that I made in “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” which I wrote in the 1990s, 78 percent were correct as of the end of 2009, and an additional 8 percent were off by a year or two. The closer I stayed to just predicting the underlying price/performance and capacity of information technologies, the more accurate the predictions were.The law of accelerating returns is the only reliable method... In another quarter century, that capability will fit inside a red blood cell and will again be a billion times more powerful per dollar.le market predictions sono in gran party voted for optimism (more or less healthy and / tg with more or less forced) for the first half of the year (by the stock exchange on December 31 & finance us page. 33 is an intervention of Francesco Caruso which carry a piece . to anyone interested in our (predictions) we refer to update us on 18 December, graphically summarized here with our annual tg, repeated annually, guidelines for the DAX. smile )
waiting to check on the goodness and field and please note this ranking good (smile), we have to look for a moment the past and more specifically last season of American Quarterly. occasion we had reported a headline that seemed particularly interesting: MON . is how he behaved after the release of its quarterly (October 6, us). good investment (it has five times the performance of the benchmark) and discrete allocation € / $, I smile.
the middle way. ISM's employment index and weeks then so thinly.
ready and now, half way and good luck for this 2011.
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